Will Football Go Extinct?
How rising safety concerns, tumbling TV ratings, and fewer kids playing are affecting the game
I felt out of place the very first time my cleats touched a football field. I caught my first reception on a pass over the middle of the field, and, to my surprise, was left wide open. Before I knew it, I had the ball within five yards of scoring. Then, I began hearing footsteps. Before I could even peek over my shoulder, a seventh grader from a neighboring school had jumped onto my back tackled me from behind. In the same moment, I lost the ball.
I have never quite been able to live down that shameful moment amongst my friends who were there. And I would never dream of calling myself an expert in the sport after an experience like that. But I don’t think you need to be an expert to make this argument.
The Argument
Like most others, football was first introduced to me right in my own living room. Every weekend for half the year, helmet-smashing, bone-crunching football dominates the TV in my house, as it does in the homes of millions of others all around the world. Football is a great way to bring people together, and it is obviously a big part of our culture. But will it always be? Or has football’s popularity—peaked?
Three Important Statistics
To measure the popularity of football in America, Roger Pielke Jr.—an American political scientist and the director of the Sports Governance Center at the University of Colorado Boulder—identified differences in television viewership, attendance, and youth participation across different levels of the sport.1
Television Viewership
The NFL is big-time TV. After last season, the league signed a record-breaking deal worth over $113 billion with five of the largest advertising companies in the world—Amazon, Disney, CBS, NBC, and FOX. The deal set the new price tag on a single NFL season at over $11 billion and gave the media conglomerates ownership rights through 2033.2
But that does not necessarily mean more people are watching. In fact, since 2015, the Super Bowl has lost nearly 15% of its audience. The NFL regular season has seen a 10% drop in viewership during the same period, while the College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship game is down 20% in viewers since its inception.3
Super Bowl Viewership (last 14 seasons)
NFL Regular Season Viewership (last 12 seasons)
College Football Playoff Viewership (9 seasons)
Key Takeaways:
The two most recent CFP National Championship games were the two least-viewed National Championships since 2005 .4
The 2017 and 2020 NFL regular seasons were the two least-viewed regular seasons since 2008.5
Decades of previously uninterrupted growth in the NFL’s audience were halted at the end of the 2010s and have remained stagnant since.
Attendance
Every week, the NFL sells approximately one million tickets, a figure that has not changed in a long time. However, after extending the regular season to 18 games last year, the league set a new record for the most attended season in league history. The league’s average per-game attendance is a much more integral stat to consider and is down 3.3% over the last 6 seasons.
NFL Total Regular Season Attendance (last 14 seasons)
Average weekly attendance during the NFL Regular Season (last 13 seasons)
*last year’s average attendance was 67,247 fans/game
Key Takeaways
The four most recent NFL seasons have had the four lowest weekly attendance rates since 2011.
AVG attendance per-game 2013-2016 (4 seasons): 68,608
AVG attendance per-game 2017-2021 (4 seasons): 66,961
2.5% decrease
Since 2019
The NFL’s total regular season attendance is up 9%
The NFL’s average weekly attendance is up 1.7%.
Since 2016
The league’s regular season attendance is up 2.8%
The NFL’s average weekly attendance is down 3.3%
College Football Attendance
The deflation in college football attendance is much less disputable. After last season, DI college football attendance rates had declined for the seventh straight year and dropped to their lowest mark since 1981.6
Average FBS Football Game Attendance (last 7 seasons)
FBS Average Attendance by Conference
*Since inception of Pac-12 (2012), American Atlantic (2013), Mountain West (1999) and Conference-USA (1996)
Key Takeaways
Seven D1 conferences with their lowest average per-game attendance rates since 2000.
SEC, BIG12, PAC12, ACC, MWC, C-USA,
Since 2014
12% drop in average FBS game attendance
Since 2019
Drop in average attendance among 7/11 DI FBS conferences
Drop in average attendance among 4/5 “Power-Five” conferences
4% loss in average attendance across all FBS teams
Youth Participation
The drop-off in youth participation is the most stark indicator of football's decline. Last year, the annual participation survey published by the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS) reported that the number of high school football players had dropped to fewer than one million for the first time since 1998.7 The average size of a high school football team has also decreased by almost 10 players since 2006 (78.9➡️70.8). As a result, many schools have been forced to forfeit games or disband their programs altogether.8
High School Football Participation (1998-2018)
High School Football Participation 2012-2021
Number of High School Football Programs and Players by State (2009-2018)
Key Takeaways
There are over 100,000 fewer high school football players in 2021 than in 2012.
The total loss in the number of U.S. high schools offering traditional 11-player football programs from 2009-2018 was 30.
States with highest losses in schools offering traditional programs: California (152), Michigan (58), Oklahoma (51)
States with the most new 11-player football programs: Texas (189), Washington (86), Florida (77)
Regionalization of the Game
Pop Warner
For younger players, participation is even more contentious. Aside from the stigma surrounding the safety of the game, there are economic hurdles to overcome. Pads, helmets, and practice equipment are not cheap, and neither is the price of hiring referees or buying uniforms. The costs quickly add up and prevent many children from starting football at a younger age.
Pop Warner, the leading organization for youth football in America, has made recent rule changes to increase the safety of their game. As of 2019, they have banned kickoffs in their three youngest divisions and also recently mandated a “less-aggressive” 2-point stance for the lineman, barring the 9 year-olds from putting a hand on the ground before the ball is snapped. 9
Yet, the number of kids participating in tackle football continues to shrink. According to the Aspen Institute’s Project Play, youth football participation is down from 3.7% to just 2.3% among all 6-12 year-olds.
Percentage of Kids aged 6-12 Participating in Different Sports (2008, 2019-2021)
Percentage of Children Aged 6-12 who Participate in Football (2008-2020)
Final Words
The driving factor behind the degradation of football will continue to be the safety of the game. As less and less kids show up to play the game, the stranglehold on the number of viable applicants to pursue college football programs and NFL teams will grow tighter. As more and more bad publicity is thrown the football’s way, it will be interesting to see how the games’ lead spokespeople (ESPN, Roger Goodell) respond to the criticism. There is heavy investment in the game’s traditional style of play— but I wonder whether or not the same would be true of a 7-on-7 or 9-on-9 format.
After Peak Football: Trends in and Futures for America’s Most Popular Sport. Pielke Jr. August 27, 2019. https://osf.io/preprints/sportrxiv/t5qsd/
NFL announces new broadcast deals running through 2033 season. Gordon, G. March 18, 2021. https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-announces-new-broadcast-deals-running-through-2033-season
AVG viewership 2015-2018: 28,527,000 viewers/game➡️AVG viewership 2019-2022: 23,371,750 viewers/game=19.1% decrease
College Football Championship Viewership Plummets to 16-Year Low. Baysinger, T. January 12, 2021. https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/college-football-championship-viewership-plummets-233541982.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
A Closer Look at the NFL’s Long, Bad Season. Paulson. February 9, 2018. https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/02/nfl-ratings-decline-2017-analysis/
College football attendance declines for seventh straight season to lowest average since 1981. Dodd, D. February 24, 2022. https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-attendance-declines-for-seventh-straight-season-to-lowest-average-since-1981
High School Participation Survey Archive. NFHS. September 16, 2022. (2021-2022 survey, page 2) https://www.nfhs.org/sports-resource-content/high-school-participation-survey-archive/
2005-2006 High School Athletes Participation Survey. NFHS. 2006. (2005-2006 survey, page 435. *(stat generated by dividing the total number of players in 2005-2006 (1,071,775) by total number of high school football programs (13,727): (1,071,775/13,727=78.1 players per team) and comparing it to the numbers from last year (973,792 players/13,733 programs=70.9 players per team)) https://www.nfhs.org/media/1020206/hs_participation_survey_history_1969-2009.pdf
More Pop Warner Safety Changes Come As The Battle For Football's Soul Intensifies. Cook, B. March 4, 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobcook/2019/03/04/more-pop-warner-safety-changes-come-as-the-battle-for-footballs-soul-intensifies/?sh=77727737706c