2023 Formula One Preview and Predictions
3 rookies, 3 World Champs, and 3 teams seriously contending for this season's crown
If you are here, you probably love Formula One. Last year, after winning eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships, Red Bull finally dethroned Mercedes’ as the World Champs. We also lost three icons—Daniel, Mick and Seb—and Max became a two-time World Drivers’ Champ (WDC) at just 25 years young.
In addition, the Haas F1 team made a resurgence, Williams added a very talented driver in Alex Albon, and we had a 2-horse fight out front for the championship. Although, after France, Charles championship hopes were cooked.
But Ferrari’s bad luck has to end somewhere. In 2023, I predict that the scarlet-red Scuderias will claim to their first championship in 15 years. My full predictions for each team and driver are below.
Ferrari
2023 Constructors’ Prediction: 1st
2022 Constructors' Position: 2nd
Top Storyline: Mattia Binotto out, Fred Vasseur in.
Ferrari finished as one of the top three teams in 10 of the last 12 seasons. Yet, they haven’t been able to win a single Championship. Since 2010, only six drivers have been seated in a Ferrari (Alonso, Massa, Raikkonen, Vettel, Leclerc, Sainz). That’s second-least to Mercedes (5), but they have won the WDC in 8 of the last 10 years.
To be fair, Ferrari took a big step forward last year. They secured P2 in the Constructors’ Championship and continued to see success from their two young, and very talented, drivers. If they can figure out the pitwall situation, their efforts should start to pay off.
Charles Leclerc
2023 WDC Prediction: 1st
Stats:
2022 WDC Position: 2nd
Race Starts: 102
Race Wins: 5 (4.9%)
Pole Positions: 18 (17.5%)
Podiums: 24 (23.3%)
DNF’s: 18 (17.5%)
Experience: Sauber F1 Team (2018), Ferrari (2019-2023)
A New Champion
I think this year’s fight for the WDC could legitimately go six different ways. In a scrap like that, Leclerc has the edge. Last year’s battle would have looked much different if it weren’t for a couple of crucial moments at a couple of crucial races (mainly, Monaco, Silverstone and France).
This year, Max has a target on his back. After the paddock found out Red Bull cheated to get their first title, teams and drivers were fuming. Even in a car that broke the rules, Max had to be handed the title by a corrupt race director.
Even so, the last time the entire grid wanted somebody else to win, they did. Leclerc has shown that he can race with Max, and the stakes are higher than ever. This year, I think Leclerc performs better under the pressure while Max begins to show cracks and continues separate himself from Red Bull and Checo.
Carlos “Smooth Operator” Sainz
2023 WDC Prediction: 3rd
Stats
2022 WDC Position: 5th
Race Starts: 162
Race Wins: 1 (0.6%)
Pole Positions: 3 (1.8%)
Podiums: 15 (9.2%)
DNF’s: 34 (20.9%)
Experience: Toro Rosso (2015-2017), Renault (2017-2018), McLaren (2019-2020), Ferrari (2021-2023)
Experience and Hunger
Carlos won his first race last July at Silverstone. However, in lots of other races, he would have been the quickest car on track if it weren’t for the pace of his teammate.
He was also extremely unlucky last year. He got spun-out from pole in Austin and DNF’d in six races (more than any other driver bar Valteri Bottas—they tied). When he did reach the finish line, he podiumed in 9 races (53%), and never finished outside the top 10. Look for Carlos to win at least 3 races in 2023.
Red Bull
2023 Constructors’ Prediction: 2nd
2022 Constructors' Position: 1st
Top Storyline: Can they go back-to-back?
After an eight-year run at the top for Mercedes, the next logical question is, “Is it Red Bull’s turn to dominate?”
The RB18 was the fastest car on the grid last year—by far. And after the pre-season testing session in Bahrain, all signs indicate that they are still miles ahead of the other teams.
But a lot of the other garages have started to close the gap. Mercedes in particular was racing a completely different, and much quicker, car at the end of last season compared to Spring.
I expect the fight for first place in the Constructors’ Championship to be a tightly-contested, three-horse race. In the end, I think Ferrari’s driver line-up is too strong for Red Bull in 2023.
Max Verstappen
2023 WDC Prediction: 2nd
2022 WDC Position: 1st
Race Starts: 163
Race Wins: 35 (21.5%)
Pole Positions: 20 (12.3%)
Podiums: 77 (46.6%)
DNF’S: 31 (19%)
Experience: Toro Rosso (2014-2016), Red Bull (2016-2023)
The Goat?
Numbers don’t lie; Max is on brinking on Goat-status. If he begins to walk away with this year’s title, then he will certainly put himself in that conversation. At just twenty-five, his 35 race-wins rank 6th in Formula One history; he is top 10 all-time in win % and podium %.. In the 21 races where he saw the checkered flag last season, he only missed out on the podium 3 times (Brazil, Singapore, and Silverstone), and was driving a damaged car on each occasion.
Sergio “Checo” Perez
2023 WDC Prediction: 5th
2022 WDC Position: 3rd
Race Starts: 235
Race Wins: 4 (1.7%)
Pole Positions: 1 (0.4%)
Podiums: 26 (11.1%)
DNF’S: 31 (13.2%)
Experience: Sauber F1 (2011-2012), McLaren (2013), Force India (2014-2018), Racing Point (2019-2020), Red Bull (2021-2023)
On the Hotseat
Last year, there were significant questions were raised about Checo’s longevity at Red Bull. Since then, not much has changed. Last season, he podiumed 11 times in 19 races (58%), but there are other young drivers that Red Bull may be keen to take a chance on—if Checo doesn’t start keep delivering. Having Max for a teammate is difficult, but having a teammate that fails to regularly challenge the world champ is a recipe for disaster. I believe Checo’s seat will be up for grabs in 2024.
Mercedes
2023 Constructors’ Prediction: 3rd
2022 Constructors' Position: 3rd
Top Storyline: Clowns or Competitors?
Mercedes fans aren’t used to being the losers. Normally, anything short of 10 race wins would be unacceptable in the team’s garage. However, the bar has to be lowered a bit in 2023.
A Formula One car carries a certain DNA. You can’t just snap your fingers and gain half a second on the straights. That means the pace of the Merc is likely going to be lacking again this year. The question is whether or not Lewis and George are up to the challenge.
I believe that five wins are within reach for Mercedes and would constitute a successful season for them.
Lewis Hamilton
2023 WDC Prediction: 4th
2022 WDC Position: 6th
Race Starts: 310
Race Wins: 103 (33.2%)
Pole Positions: 103 (33.2%)
Podiums: 191 (61.6%)
DNF’S: 29 (9.4%)
Experience: McLaren (2007-2012), Mercedes (2013-2023)
Order 66
Dun. Dun. Dun. Dun D-dun. Dun D-dun. If F1 were a Star Wars movie, Lewis Hamilton would be the Dark Sith Lord. This season, he is looking to destroy the Jedi Order and stand-alone as the only man in the universe with 8 WDC’s. In the blacked-out W14, the Darkside is strong with him once again. Everything is starting to mean a bit more to the 38 year-old. Look for him to be driving a bit more desperately in 2023.
George Russel
2023 WDC Prediction: 6th
2022 WDC Position: 4th
Race Starts: 82
Race Wins: 1 (1.2%)
Pole Positions: 1
Podiums: 9 (11%)
DNF’S: (13 (15.9%)
Experience: Williams (2019-2021), Mercedes (2022-2023)
It’s Not Personal (Enough)
It’s not that I think Russel is going to regress in 2023, I just don’t think he is as talented as five of the other top six drivers (not including Checo). George just doesn’t have the same arrogance—he doesn’t gloat or ever really talk highly of himself—like the other drivers. In other words, he has no edge. However, you have to give him credit; he’s outscored his teammate in every single season he’s been in Formula One (a growing list that now includes Lewis Hamilton). Still, he is going to be battling for third place in the 3rd quickest car, and will struggle to compete at the same level he did in 2022.
Aston Martin
2023 Constructors’ Prediction: 4th
2022 Constructors' Position: 7th
Top Storyline: The Winners of Pre-Season Testing
There is a lot of hype surrounding this Aston Martin team. They’ve signed a new driver in 2-time World Champ Fernando Alonso, and seem to have made a major leap in terms of pace. The car is reportedly “95% brand new” and was designed, for the first time, by former Red Bull aerodynamicist Dan Fallows—who helped RB and Sebastian Vettel win 8 Championships between 2010-2013.
Fernando Alonso
2023 WDC Prediction: 7th
2022 WDC Position: 9th
Race Starts: 355
Race Wins: 32 (9.0%)
Pole Positions: 22 (6.2%)
Podiums: 98 (27.6%)
DNF’S: 74 (20.8%)
Experience: Minardi F1 (2001), Renault (2003-2006, 2008-2009) McLaren (2007, 2015-2018), Ferrari (2010-2014), Alpine (2021-2022), Aston Martin (2023)
Can He Keep it Up?
In 18 seasons, Alonso has only finished the year outside of the top 10 four times. Last year, he made it to Q3 18 times in 23 races and put his car on the front row of a GP for the first time since 2012. Needless to say, Alonso hasn’t forgotten how to be quick. In an upgraded Aston, he has a chance to finish this season at the top of the midfield.
Lance Stroll
2023 WDC Prediction: 9th
2022 WDC Position: 15th
Race Starts: 122
Race Wins: 0
Pole Positions: 1 (0.8%)
Podiums: 3 (2.5%)
DNF’S: 22 (18%)
Experience: Williams (2017-2018), Racing Point (2019-2020), Aston Martin (2021-2023)
Daddy’s Boy
Lance Stroll is best known for his father—but that doesn’t mean he isn’t quick. Stroll showed a lot of promise early on in his career. He entered Formula One with Williams at the ripe age of 19 and immediately began performing. His first podium came before his 20th birthday, and he began making regular Q3 appearances with the Racing Point team back in 2020.
However, the last two seasons Lance has struggled. It was a rarity to see him competing in the top-10 last year, and he has become one of the regular drivers who gets lapped by the leaders. But with a re-vamped racecar, Lance has a legit shot to finish this season as a top 10 points-scorer for the first time in his career.
Alpine
2023 Constructors’ Prediction: 5th
2022 Constructors' Position: 4th
Top Storyline: Driver Drama
Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon grew up less than 30 minutes apart. According to planetF1, the two were extremely close in their younger years. Back in 2018, Gasly recalled “We used to spend so much time together, train [at] the same track, going on weekends together. “Honestly, we did spend some fantastic time together.”
In the end, it was their on-track actions that wedged them apart. Gasly said that back in 2009, the pair clashed at the final corner while fighting for the podium. Just a year later, Gasly claims that Ocon openly cut the track to take him off at the World Cup in Portugal.
In the past, Ocon has had a lot of controversial moments with teammates. Just ask Sergio Perez of Fernando Alonso. With Gasly moving in next door to him, expect sparks to fly.
Esteban Ocon
2023 WDC Prediction: 8th
2022 WDC Position: 8th
Race Starts: 111
Race Wins: 1 (0.9%)
Pole Positions: 0
Podiums: 2 (1.8%)
DNF’S: 18 (16.7%)
Experience: Renault/Manor F1 (2016), Force India (2017-2018), Renault (2020), Alpine (2021-2023)
Something to Prove
This year is a big opportunity for Esteban. In every season that he’s raced in (except for last year), he’s finished behind his teammate. With a much more familiar face lining up next to him in equal machinery this year, Ocon will certainly be looking to lead the team in points for the second-straight season.
Pierre Gasly
2023 WDC Prediction: 11th
2022 WDC Position: 14th
Race Starts: 108
Race Wins: 1 (0.9%)
Pole Positions: 0
Podiums: 3 (2.8%)
DNF’S: 18 (16.7%)
Experience: Toro Rosso (2017-2019), Red Bull (2019), AlphaTauri (2020-2022), Alpine (2023)
Starting Fresh
When Pierre Gasly was put in the Red Bull at just 23 years old, his hype shot through the roof. He quickly became one of the most acclaimed drivers on the grid, but the results were slow to come. In 12 races with Red Bull, he failed to put himself on the podium once. He has a reputation as being a bit reckless, but has been given a real opportunity to compete towards the top half of the field again. It should be fun to see him getting into more battles and will be nearly impossible to finish worse than 14th in the WDC this year.
Haas
2023 Constructors’ Prediction: 6th
2022 Constructors' Position: 8th
Top Storyline: “Suck My Balls Mate”
Flashback to 2017: Kevin Magnessun and Nico Hulkenberg are dueling down the main straight of the Hungaroring. Into turn one they go. K-Mag stays ahead by a car length, but Hulk is hot on his gearbox. As they approach turn two, a long left-hander, Hulkenberg brakes late and sends his Renault the long way around the outside of K-Mag. However, at the very last possible moment, K-Mag swoops right, slams the door shut, forces Hulkenberg off the track. The incident sends the Renault tumbling down the order.
After the race, Hulk approaches K-Mag and says to him, “Once again, (you are) the most unsporting driver on the grid.”
Kevin’s iconic response was simply, “Suck my balls mate.”
Kevin Magnussen “K-Mag”
2023 WDC Prediction: 12th
2022 WDC Position: 13th
Race Starts: 141
Race Wins: 0
Pole Positions: 1 (0.7%)
Podiums: 1 (0.7%)
DNF’S: 28 (19.9%)
Experience: McLaren (2014), Renault (2016), Haas (2017-2023)
The Dad Effect
In January of 2021, Kevin Magnessun became a father. Miraculously, his daughter, Laura, popped-out 7 weeks early! That same week, Kevin posted a long message to Instagram that began with, “On Monday, I met the love of my life.”
According to Guenther Steiner, the Haas team boss, being a dad has had a profound effect on Kevin. “He’s aged about 10 years,” Steiner told Netflix.
K-Mag says that his daughter has completely changed him as a racing driver, "Becoming a dad suddenly changes you in the way that someone is now more important than you. When you're a Formula One driver, and I guess any top sports person, you grew up in this world where everything is centered around you.”
Nico “Hulk” Hulkgenberg
2023 WDC Prediction: 13th
2022 WDC Position: N/A
Race Starts: 181
Race Wins: 0
Pole Positions: 1 (0.6%)
Podiums: 0
DNF’S: 38 (21%)
Experience: Williams (2010), Force India (2012, 2014-2016), Sauber F1 (2013), Renault (2017-2019), Haas (2023)
McLaren
2023 Constructors’ Prediction: 7th
2022 Constructors' Position: 5th
Top Storyline: The Losers of Pre-Season Testing
There’s a lot of folks who are real skeptical about the pace and drivability of this McLaren. But few have been as outspoken as lead driver, Lando Norris.
"We know we need a step in efficiency, we need more downforce. We also need to go in the straights quicker. So, there's obviously a path we need to try and find, and I believe we're slowly finding our way there, but we need a lot more. It's not just small things. We need some bigger things just it still takes a long time to achieve. But hopefully this is a bit of a pathway to that."
— Lando Norris during testing in Bahrain
According to Will Buxton, F1 insider, analyst, and hype-man, Norris was seen upset leaving taking his frustrations out with a firm wall-punch while leaving the garage last week.
Lando Norris
2023 WDC Prediction: 10th
2022 WDC Position: 15th
Race Starts: 82
Race Wins: 0
Pole Positions: 1 (1.2%)
Podiums: 6 (7.3%)
DNF’S: 10 (12.2%)
Experience: McLaren (2018-2023)
Ticking Time Bomb
After losing fourth place in the final races of 2022, McLaren was caught in a difficult spot; they failed to deliver a quick car to a WDC-level talent—Lando Norris. They also signed Oscar Pisatri, a former Eurocup, F3, and F2 World Champ. He is another driver with a lot of hype, and the pressure is on in that McLaren garage. If they can’t improve the pace of their car, they will have a difficult time holding onto their drivers.
Oscar Piastri (rookie)
2023 WDC Prediction: 18th
2022 WDC Position: N/A
Race Starts: 0
Race Wins: 0
Pole Positions: 0
Podiums: 0
DNF’S: 0
Experience: McLaren (2023)
Training Wheels
In all likelihood, this is going to be a “get your feet wet” type of season for Piastri. The McLaren is not going to stand out in the midfield—which means that Oscar will likely be overtaken a lot on track. But he should have some good opportunities to battle as well. For him, it is going to be important for him not to get too discouraged about the results.
McLaren have already said that they are beginning shifting their focus to 2025—when the next new set of regulations will provide an opportunity to make a jump. Piastri should be given some slack in his rookie season, but hopefully he won’t need it.
Alfa Romeo
2023 Constructors’ Prediction: 8th
2022 Constructors' Position: 6th
Top Storyline: Best Livery Award
That is one sexy racecar. I just hope its fast. I would love to see Alfa move up this year, I just don’t think they have the pace for it. Bottas is their lead driver, but he went nearly half the season without scoring a point last year. Their reliability is a huge issue, as they had more DNF’s (11) than any other team, and you can’t score in races that you don’t finish. Unfortunately, the phrase “look good, play good” doesn’t apply to racing because—well, its racing.
Valtteri Bottas
2023 WDC Prediction: 15th
2022 WDC Position: 10th
Race Starts: 200
Race Wins: 10 (5%)
Pole Positions: 20 (10%)
Podiums: 67 (33.7%)
DNF’S: 23 (11.5%)
Experience: Williams (2012-2016), Mercedes (2017-2021), Alfa Romeo (2022-2023)
Mullet Man
The biggest news that was announced this offseason was that Valtteri Bottas was changing his hairstyle. Just two weeks after last year’s season ended, Valtteri dropped an Instagram video of him getting a haircut to “She Works Hard for the Money” by Donna Summers. The internet exploded. One mullet later, his post had over 400K likes.
Zhou Guanyu
2023 WDC Prediction: 17th
2022 WDC Position: 18th
Race Starts: 22
Race Wins: 0
Pole Positions: 0
Podiums: 0
DNF’S: 5 (22.7%)
Experience: Alfa Romeo (2022-2023)
Changing the Narrative
Coming off of a strong rookie season, we should see Zhou be more competitive in the midfield this year. He’s in a pretty quick car, but I just feel that there are too many teams with better cars in front for Zhou to be anywhere near the T10. In any case, he must perform well this season or else he’ll risk losing his seat and becoming a driver who is only being remembered for their biggest crash.
Williams
2023 Constructors’ Prediction: 9th
2022 Constructors' Position: 10th
Top Storyline: Out of the Basement
This is the year that Williams will finally make a resurgence. Their team entered F1 just prior to the 1977 season, and then went on to win 9 constructors titles and 7 WDC over the next two decades. In the early 2000s, however, they fell to the midfield, and now they race at the back of the pack.
They’ve signed Logan Sargeant, the first American F1 driver since Alexander Rossi, and have given him an improved racecar. Sargeant is largely unproven, as it is rare to have a rookie who has not already won a World Championship in another class of racing, but the young American does not fall into that category. Nonetheless, if he has the pace he will compete. Born December 31, 2000, Sargeant is barely 22 years old. Hopefully, he can prove his worth next to a talented #1 driver in Alex Albon.
Alex Albon
2023 WDC Prediction: 12th
2022 WDC Position: 19th
Race Starts: 59
Race Wins: 0
Pole Positions: 0
Podiums: 2 (3.4%)
DNF’S: 8 (13.6%)
Experience: Toro Rosso (2019), Red Bull (2020), Williams (2022-2023)
Comeback Kid
When Albon joined Toro Rosso in 2019, he made a Q3 appearance in 9 of his first 21 race starts. Red Bull noticed his skill, so they called him up and seated him next to Max Verstappen halfway through his rookie year. In the remaining 9 races, Albon saw each finish line (meaning he had no DNF’s), and only finished outside of the top 10 once.
The following year, his role increased, as you are expected to regularly achieve podium finished when you’re in a Red Bull. But Albon only finished 7th in the championship standings that year. He found his way to the podium just twice in 17 races, but the stats don’t paint the whole picture. Albon was robbed of his maiden F1 win, arguably twice, by Lewis Hamilton in 2019 and 2020. He was a strong competitor and has had a rough go of it up to this point in his career. He will also be racing for his future this season.
Logan Sargeant (rook)
2023 WDC Prediction: 19th
2022 WDC Position: N/A
Race Starts: 0
Race Wins: 0
Pole Positions: 0
Podiums: 0
DNF’S: 0
Experience: Williams (2023)
1 Rookie, 2 Rookie, Red Rookie, Blue Rookie
If the Williams car is quick, Sargeant could be getting prepared to take F1 by storm. It will be interesting to see where the three rookies (Piastri, Sargeant, and De Vries) each finish this season. Based on the performance of last year’s cars, and the hype surrounding Oscar Piastri, you would imagine that the McLaren driver should be miles ahead of both Sargeant and De Vries. But for some reason, I don’t expect that to be the case. Hopefully, we get some good competition between the three of them for some years to come.
Alpha Tauri
2023 Constructors’ Prediction: 10th
2022 Constructors' Position: 9th
Top Storyline: It’s Looking Bleak
Last year was not a good year at Alpha Tauri. They lost Pierre Gasly, a driver who has been with the Red Bull family for nearly a decade, and there are a ton of concerns around their new #1 driver—Yuki Tsunoda— who has failed to show any signs of consistent pace. He is quick sometimes, but at other tracks it’s like he’s driving a different racecar. He was quickly labeled as a “hot head,” and is not somebody that I anticipate Red Bull will hang onto for too long if things turn South.
Unfortunately, this year may be even worse. They only finished in the points one time in the final 5 races of last season (Tsunoda 10th at COTA), and had the slowest car all week in testing. Their driver lineup got weaker, and their car did as well; they were the easy choice for last place.
Yuki Tsunoda
2023 WDC Prediction: 16th
2022 WDC Position: 17th
Race Starts: 42
Race Wins: 0
Pole Positions: 0
Podiums: 0
DNF’S: 8 (19%)
Experience: Alpha Tauri (2021-2023)
Make It or Break It
Its no secret, this is a big year for Yuki. Another rough year for him and he may not get another shot. There is no question he is talented—we’ve seen him to things with that Alpha Tauri car that not many other drivers have done in the turbo-hybrid era. But again, its the consistency that is the issue. Yuki, like many others, will be racing for his future in F1 this season.
Nyck De Vries (rook)
2023 WDC Prediction: 20th
2022 WDC Position: N/A
Race Starts: 1
Race Wins: 0
Pole Positions: 0
Podiums: 0
DNF’S: 0
Experience: Alpha Tauri (2023)
I wouldn’t have expected that the worst rookie on the grid was going to be the only one of the three who has actually competed in an F1 GP before—but that seems to be the case for Nyck De Vries. I feel that his abilities will be significantly limited by his car for at least the next two years. Still, give the man his credit—coming into F1 at 28 years old is like having a kid at 55. De Vries is a 2-time former World Champion racing driver (F2 in 2019 and Formula-E in 2021). He is an experienced racer who demonstrates a valuable attribute that his teammate seemingly lacks—the ability to stay level-headed.